Who is Theodorus Ibn Warqa?

Theodorus Ibn Warqa is a figure in Nassim Taleb’s book.

At first glance, the name seems like Taleb being Taleb: a playful and erudite dude. But the deeper I dig, the clearer it becomes that this isn’t just showing off. The name is carefully crafted.

I apologize for mumbling Mr. Taleb is showing off…

It seems like Theodorus Ibn Warqa is a composite of 2 tragic figures, Theodorus and Warqa where the “Ibn”ابن refers to “son of” in Arabic . Therefore, we have this equation

Oh, poor cousin, you are blessed with tragedy.

Theodorus is the brother of the Byzantine Emperor Heraclius and he died in the battle against Arab invaders in 633 CE. The defeat cost the empire Roman Syria, Mesopotamia, Armenia and Egypt - losses that were irreversible.

Warqa is the doomed lover from the Arabic love story Varka and Golshah. Warqa’s efforts to marry his beloved end in mutual ruin, Warqa died of grief giving up on marrying Golsha and Golshah died of grief in Warqa’s grave.

If Theodorus and Warqa both end in tragedy, what does it mean to the cousin Theodorus Ibn Warqa, the “Pro Max” descendant? Let’s get back to Taleb’s core idea.

What Taleb highlights is a concept called ergodicity - the difference between group probabilities and individual fate. Consider:

• Ensemble probability. If 100 people gamble once, some may win and some lose.
• Time probability. If one person gambles 100 times, they WILL go bankrupt on day $X$.

Now let’s grasp the idea intuitively. The following is an ergodic system - you are granted to traverse the whole system.

Let’s imagine a coin-tossing game with 100 people placing 1 bet each. Each person starts with 💲.100 They bet 💲100 on a fair coin toss. Statistically, there are 50% chance to win and 50% to lose. Mathematically speaking, the outcome would be:

• ~50 people double their money to 💲200.
• ~50 people lose everything 💲0.

But overall, the system appears stable, half succeed, half are ruined.

The following is a non-ergodic system with absorbing barrier. Once you fail and you can’t recover. You are trapped permanently.

This is what the cousin encountered. He starts with 💲100 and bets all his money on 100 consecutive fair coin tosses. In this case, he is doomed. The probability of surviving all 100 bets would be

That’s effectively zero. That’s why he will be ruined on the day $X$. In this case, the ruin is irreversible.

For individuals, survival isn’t about averages. It’s about avoiding irreversible ruin.

• a Byzantine army might statistically recover from territorial losses (ensemble view), but Theodorus, as an individual, cannot.
• a hundred Warqas might have various romantic outcomes (ensemble view), but the singular Warqar is doomed.

Whether is casinos, markets, or life, the lesson is the same: Never confuse what’s possible for a group with what’s survivable for you.

Normally, I would not leave a note at the end of a blog post. But today is special for me.